Transition to zero-emission energy "costs" 1% of global GDP

13 May 2025

Etwa 1 % des globalen Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) müssten investiert werden, um auf emissionsneutrale Energie umzusteigen.
Copyright:
Forschungszentrum Jülich/Sascha Kreklau

Dr. Ian Marius Peters (Helmholtz Institute Erlangen-Nürnberg for Renewable Energy, HI ERN) and Prof. Christian Breyer (LUT University, Finland) have studied the global investment required to transition to a carbon-neutral energy system. To compare the scale of the effort required, and to provide context for the investments estimated by different organizations, the two use the concept of "excess productivity" - the portion of a society's output that is not necessary for basic survival.

On this basis, they compare these challenges to major construction projects in history, such as the pyramids or the Apollo program. They estimate that it would take an investment of about 1% of global GDP to transition to emissions-neutral energy. This is comparable to the investments made in the past for major projects such as the transcontinental railroad in the US, which fundamentally changed society. The authors conclude that the energy transition is challenging, but achievable.

Understanding energy transition as a civilizational project

However, they also emphasize that climate goals can only be achieved through global cooperation. Increased international efforts are needed, as current agreements are not sufficient to achieve the required pace. It is crucial to understand the energy transition as a civilizational project that requires innovation and collective action at the highest level. Peters and Breyer believe that collective action and targeted investments can solve environmental problems while promoting social justice and sustainable growth.

The results of their collaboration were recently published in the journal Joule.

The net-zero-emission energy transition in the context of past monumental projects

The net-zero-emission energy transition in the context of past monumental projects
The upper left graph illustrates the extent to which various human societies have been able to mobilize their productivity for selected monumental projects, grouped into five categories: cultural (green), infrastructure (orange), technology (blue), war and conflict (red), and disaster response (purple). The gray area represents the development of excess productivity, defined as productivity not required to provide basic nutrition. The lower section of the figure presents different estimates of both the absolute and additional efforts needed to transition to a net-zero emission energy system. The upper right graph places this additional effort in the context of past monumental projects and contrasts it with the projected costs of failing to address climate change. Projects labeled as “global” represent unprecedented efforts requiring coordination across multiple nations and regions, in contrast to historical examples, which were primarily regional in scope.
Copyright:
Joule DOI: (10.1016/j.joule.2025.101929)

Original publication

Ian Marius Peters, Christian Breyer,
Marshalling our productivity to create a sustainable global civilization,
Joule, 2025, 101929, ISSN 2542-4351, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2025.101929.

Contact

Dr. Ian Marius Peters

Gruppenleiter "Hoch­durch­satz Cha­rakter­isierung und Modell­ierung für die PV"

    Building HIERN-Immerwahrstr /
    Room 2.3
    +49 9131-12538303
    E-Mail

    Related Content

    No results found.
    Loading

    Last Modified: 13.05.2025
    sustainable pv